Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will drop dead be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 9, 2026"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 4, 2026. 10 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will drop dead be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 9, 2026"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 33716.5% and 416.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will drop dead be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 9, 2026"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	33716.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	416.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	30345%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4140%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.88	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.10	Liquidity Availability Score

Will drop dead be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 9, 2026

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions