Will drop dead be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 9, 2026: drop dead
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$245
2 contracts
Closes
Jun 29, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Choosin' Texas be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Choosin' Texas
Cluster 2
Will I Knew It, I Knew You be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: I Knew It, I Knew You
Analysis
This market asks whether 'drop dead' will rank as the #2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of May 9, 2026. The 15% probability reflects relatively low odds, suggesting traders believe the song is unlikely to reach that specific chart position. The current probability is influenced by the song's existing chart momentum—'drop dead' already ranked as the runner-up song on May 2, 2026 (trading at 91¢), indicating it has achieved strong performance. Whether it maintains or improves that position depends on competing releases, radio play, and streaming activity over the next week. The key resolution event is the official Billboard Hot 100 release for the chart week ending May 9, 2026, which typically publishes on Tuesday. Traders are essentially betting whether 'drop dead' will hold or improve its near-top position or whether another song will overtake it for the #2 slot.
- ›'drop dead' ranked #2 on the May 2, 2026 chart (91¢ contract suggests high confidence in this outcome)
- ›The song must maintain or improve position against competing releases and streaming trends in the subsequent week
- ›Top competing song positions remain uncertain—Elizabeth Taylor at 1¢ and other unnamed songs at low probabilities suggest no dominant replacement is priced in
- ›Billboard Hot 100 calculations factor streaming, radio airplay, and digital sales weighted differently, introducing measurement variability
- ›Official chart release for May 9 week occurs Tuesday of that week, providing definitive resolution with no appeal or revision
What moved the line
- Jun 25I Knew It, I Knew You↑49pp27→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Choosin' Texas↓39pp41→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Choosin' Texas↓35pp76→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Choosin' Texas↑20pp35→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Choosin' Texas↑14pp55→69¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (44% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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