SimpleFunctions

Eric Jones · KXCAPRIMARY-04FIRST26

Eric Jones is priced at 60¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 79¢ ask, 67¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside KXCAPRIMARY-04FIRST26.

Price history

60¢ current

4¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Apr 26, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

If Eric Jones wins the the 2026 CA-04 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Eric Jones

Rank

#3 of 9

Leader

Mike Thompson 23¢

Range

9¢-23¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXCAPRIMARY-04FIRST26-EJON

May 24, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 26m ago

Implied probability

60¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 26m ago

Bid

12¢

Ask

79¢

Spread

67¢

Reported volume

$5K

Family rank

#3 of 9

9 outcomes · KXCAPRIMARY-04FIRST26

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

12 / 79¢

Kalshi
67¢ spread
BidSize
12¢2
11¢2.0K
6¢220
5¢339
2¢1.4K
AskSize
79¢2.0K
85¢100
88¢240
89¢800
91¢17

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Eric Jones wins the the 2026 CA-04 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Identifier

KXCAPRIMARY-04FIRST26-EJON

SF Signal
SF Index
506.87
Regime
neutral

Browse this series

2026 California Primary Election Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXCAPRIMARY series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

506.9%

IY (No)

9.4%

Adj IY

507%

CRI

7

RV

3534%

VR

5.96

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

506.9%
9.4%
Adj IY
507%
7
RV
3534%
VR
5.96
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
0.0%

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Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.