Will Mike Thompson place first in the 2026 CA-04 primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Mike Thompson place first in the 2026 CA-04 primary?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 745% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5.6% on the No side, suggesting either severe underpricing of Thompson's chances or significant tail risk that the market is pricing in.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 745% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5.6% on the No side, suggesting either severe underpricing of Thompson's chances or significant tail risk that the market is pricing in. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 6¢ price, and the 3,563% realized volatility indicates wild price swings despite modest 24-hour volume of just $1,666, pointing to thin liquidity and potential for outsized moves. With 563 days until expiration and an info arrival rate of 0.8 events per hour, this market remains highly speculative and sensitive to campaign developments in CA-04.
Resolution rules
If Mike Thompson wins the the 2026 CA-04 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCAPRIMARY-04FIRST26-MTHO yes 100