Fall Out Boy · KXALBUMRELEASE-26
Fall Out Boy is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 28¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside KXALBUMRELEASE-26.
Price history
37¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If Fall Out Boy releases a new album in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Fall Out Boy
Rank
#13 of 16
Leader
Olivia Rodrigo 99¢
Range
16¢-99¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-FAL
May 25, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
28¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#13 of 16
16 outcomes · KXALBUMRELEASE-26
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
28 / 36¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Fall Out Boy releases a new album in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-FAL
Event family
KXALBUMRELEASE-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Olivia Rodrigo 99¢
Current share
0%
Olivia Rodrigo
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-OLIV
Ariana Grande
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-ARI
Beyoncé
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-BEY
Grimes
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-GRI
Bryson Tiller
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-BRY
Kendrick Lamar
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-KEN
Travis Scott
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-TRA
Taylor Swift
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-TAY
SZA
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-SZA
Sabrina Carpenter
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-SAB
Tate McRae
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-TAT
21 Savage
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-21S
Rihanna
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-RIH
Fall Out Boy
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-FAL
Lil Nas X
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-NASX
Billie Eilish
kalshi · KXALBUMRELEASE-26-BIL
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.