What is the current probability for "Will Frank Ocean attend The Met Gala 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Frank Ocean attend The Met Gala 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1088.7% and 20.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Frank Ocean attend The Met Gala 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Frank Ocean attend The Met Gala 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Frank Ocean attend The Met Gala 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 12/15¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $521.98·OI $7,825.65·Closes Dec 31, 2026·246d remaining

KXMETGALA-FRA

7-day price968 snapshots · 16 regime

24¢12¢ current

Apr 84¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

If Frank Ocean attends The Met Gala 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1088.7%

IY (No) 20.2%

Adj IY 726%

CRI 7

RV 1256%

VR 4.62

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1088.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	20.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	726%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1256%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.62	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	16.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.33	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 6:45:19 PM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 6:38:27 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMETGALA-FRA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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