Germany advances further than Belgium · KXWCTEAMH2H-26GERBEL
Germany advances further than Belgium is priced at 50¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 50¢ bid, 51¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside KXWCTEAMH2H-26GERBEL.
Price history
50¢ current
+19¢Contract brief
If Germany advances to a further stage than Belgium in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Germany advances further than Belgium
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Germany advances further than Belgium 50¢
Range
15¢-50¢
Family volume
$661
Identifier
KXWCTEAMH2H-26GERBEL-GER
Jun 18, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
50¢
Ask
51¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$626
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · KXWCTEAMH2H-26GERBEL
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
Family volume
$661
Orderbook snapshot
50 / 51¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Germany advances to a further stage than Belgium in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
Identifier
KXWCTEAMH2H-26GERBEL-GER
Event family
KXWCTEAMH2H-26GERBEL.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$661
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Germany advances further than Belgium 50¢
Current share
95%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.