Will Japan advance further than Korea Republic in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15K
20 contracts
Top contract
83¢
$5K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will France” vs “Will USA advance further than Mexico in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will France
Will France advance further than Portugal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: France advances further than Portugal
KXWCTEAMH2H-26FRAPOR-FRA
Will France be eliminated in the same stage as Portugal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Eliminated same stage
KXWCTEAMH2H-26FRAPOR-TIE
Cluster 2
Will USA advance further than Mexico in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 3
Will Argentina advance further than Brazil in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 4
Will Germany advance further than Belgium in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 5
Will Mexico advance further than USA in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 6
Will Japan advance further than Korea Republic in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 7
Will Ecuador advance further than Colombia in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 8
Will Colombia advance further than Ecuador in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 9
Will Morocco advance further than Turkiye in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 10
Will Netherlands advance further than Norway in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 11
Will Korea Republic advance further than Japan in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 12
Will Portugal advance further than France in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 13
Will England advance further than Spain in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 14
Will Spain advance further than England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 15
Will Croatia advance further than Uruguay in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 16
Will Turkiye advance further than Morocco in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 17
Will USA be eliminated in the same stage as Mexico in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 18
Will Austria advance further than Switzerland in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 19
Will Norway advance further than Netherlands in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Analysis
This contract reflects a 23% probability that Japan will advance further than South Korea in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Japan enters as a higher-ranked team with recent strong tournament performances, while Korea Republic also qualifies regularly but faces tougher group stage dynamics this cycle. The probability would shift based on official group draw results, team roster announcements, and pre-tournament form. The World Cup takes place in June-July 2026, at which point the contract resolves based on which team progresses further in the knockout stage—or is eliminated earlier. Current odds suggest market participants view Japan as the likely deeper performer, though Korea's qualification demonstrates competitive capacity to potentially disrupt that expectation.
- ›Japan's FIFA ranking and recent World Cup performance history versus Korea Republic's qualification track record and group stage strength
- ›The specific group assignments and opponent quality each team faces in the tournament draw
- ›Injury status and player availability of key performers on both squads during the pre-tournament period
- ›Head-to-head strength in 2022 World Cup performance and subsequent qualification campaigns
- ›Weather, altitude, and scheduling factors that emerge closer to June 2026 that could disproportionately affect either team's knockout stage progression
What moved the line
- Jun 13Eliminated same stage↑27pp2→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13USA advances further than Mexico↑24pp16→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Morocco advances further than Turkiye↑22pp33→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Eliminated same stage↓18pp29→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Korea Republic advances further than Japan↑17pp11→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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