Will Germany inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 3.1%?

Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Germany inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 3.1%?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing April 29, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme yield metrics (7506% on Yes) driven by minimal open interest of just $10 and a wide 10¢ spread, making the quoted probabilities unreliable for serious analysis.

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33¢
Bid/Ask 28/37¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $203·Closes Apr 29, 2026·8d remaining
KXDECPIPREL-26APR29-T3.1
7-day price27 snapshots · 17 regime
50¢28¢ current
Apr 146¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This micro-liquidity market shows extreme yield metrics (7506% on Yes) driven by minimal open interest of just $10 and a wide 10¢ spread, making the quoted probabilities unreliable for serious analysis. With zero 24-hour volume and only 13 days to expiry, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish genuine price discovery, and the 3 Cliff Risk Index suggests elevated uncertainty near resolution. The flat 7-day price action at 28¢ indicates no meaningful new information has moved traders, leaving this contract too illiquid to confidently assess whether 40¢ represents fair value for German inflation exceeding 3.1% in April 2026.

Resolution rules

If Germany inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 is above 3.1, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12104.4%
IY (No) 1830.6%
Adj IY 6052%
CRI 3
Overround 3.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)12104.4%
IY (No)1830.6%
Adj IY6052%
CRI3
Overround3.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
9¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:05:14 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXDECPIPREL-26APR29-T3.1 yes 100

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