What is the current probability for "Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 34¢ (34% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 243 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 138.5% and 162.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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34¢

Bid/Ask 7/60¢·Spread 53¢·Vol $0·OI $51.138·Closes Dec 31, 2026·243d remaining

0xd20b5d0c73c824a7a0c2937baa24c3ad8913fa1d4a057f0cc702b5705a7ac307

7-day price1103 snapshots · 10 regime

58¢52¢ current

Apr 2624¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 138.5%

IY (No) 162.5%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 1

RV 5568%

VR 34.41

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	138.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	162.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5568%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	34.41	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	6.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.69	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

53¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 3:45:12 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 3:38:10 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xd20b5d0c73c824a7a0c2937baa24c3ad8913fa1d4a057f0cc702b5705a7ac307 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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