Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?: $7.000+
Kalshi
9 contracts
Polymarket
5 contracts
Analysis
This contract measures the probability that ground beef will reach $7.00 per pound or higher at some point during 2026. The current 39% probability reflects mixed expectations, with Kalshi traders slightly more bullish (43%) than Polymarket participants (35%). Ground beef prices depend primarily on cattle supply, feed costs (particularly corn and hay), and retail demand patterns. The key driver of the spread between platforms suggests uncertainty about whether input costs will sustain or accelerate price increases. The main catalyst would be USDA cattle inventory reports and quarterly beef price data releases, which directly influence expectations for year-end pricing levels. Currently, traders are assessing whether structural cost pressures will overcome typical seasonal price moderation in the second half of 2026.
- ›USDA cattle inventory levels as of April 2026 compared to 12-month average, indicating supply tightness
- ›Current wholesale beef prices relative to the $7.00 retail threshold, accounting for typical retail markup margins
- ›Corn and hay prices in April 2026, since feed costs directly impact cattle raising economics
- ›The 8 percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests disagreement about whether inflation will sustain or deflate through year-end
- ›Historical seasonal patterns showing whether ground beef typically peaks in Q2 or Q3-Q4, affecting probability of hitting the target
Contracts
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.70ㅤ?: Above 6.70ㅤ
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?: $8.000+
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?: $10.000+
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.74ㅤ?: Above 6.74ㅤ
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.78ㅤ?: Above 6.78ㅤ
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?: $7.000+
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.76ㅤ?: Above 6.76ㅤ
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.64ㅤ?: Above 6.64ㅤ
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.80ㅤ?: Above 6.80ㅤ
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.68ㅤ?: Above 6.68ㅤ
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.66ㅤ?: Above 6.66ㅤ
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.72ㅤ?: Above 6.72ㅤ
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?: $9.000+