Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Iceman have at least 10,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Iceman?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 98¢ (98% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 25, 2026. 241 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Iceman have at least 10,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Iceman?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 31.0% and 739.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Iceman have at least 10,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Iceman?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	31.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	739.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	597%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	113%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.05	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.19	Liquidity Availability Score

Will Iceman have at least 10,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Iceman?

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