Will clavicular have At least 300000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 84% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 72%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 400,000
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
72¢
At least 450,000
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
186 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will clavicular have At least
Will clavicular have At least 400000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 400,000
KXFOLLOWERCOUNTCLAV-27-400000
Will clavicular have At least 500000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 500,000
KXFOLLOWERCOUNTCLAV-27-500000
Will clavicular have At least 450000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 450,000
KXFOLLOWERCOUNTCLAV-27-450000
Analysis
This market estimates a 52% chance that the social media account 'clavicular' reaches 300,000 followers by January 1, 2027—roughly eight months away. The account would need to gain followers at a pace consistent with moderate growth, though the current trajectory and engagement rate are critical unknowns. Growth depends on content consistency, algorithmic promotion, and audience retention. The main driver of uncertainty is whether the account's existing growth rate will accelerate, plateau, or decline. Uncertainty will be resolved on or shortly before the January 1, 2027 deadline when follower count can be verified, making the current forecast particularly dependent on recent growth momentum and upcoming content plans.
- ›Current follower count and average weekly growth rate over the past 30-90 days determines whether 300,000 is achievable at existing momentum
- ›Content publication frequency and audience engagement metrics (likes, comments, shares) relative to followers indicate capacity to sustain growth through year-end
- ›Algorithmic visibility and platform algorithmic changes significantly impact reach for new content and follower acquisition rate
- ›Competitive landscape and trends within the account's niche may accelerate or inhibit follower growth independently of content quality
- ›Account age and historical follower retention patterns suggest whether gains are durable or subject to significant churn
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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