Will clavicular have At least 300000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 63% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 500,000
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
At least 450,000
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
105 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will clavicular have at least
Will clavicular have at least 550000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 550,000
KXFOLLOWERCOUNTCLAV-27--550000
Will clavicular have At least 500000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 500,000
KXFOLLOWERCOUNTCLAV-27-500000
Will clavicular have At least 450000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 450,000
KXFOLLOWERCOUNTCLAV-27-450000
Will clavicular have at least 600000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 600,000
KXFOLLOWERCOUNTCLAV-27--600000
Analysis
This represents an expectation that @clavicular will reach 400,000 followers by year-end 2026, with a 90% probability according to current contracts. The tight timeframe—roughly 5.5 months—makes follower growth velocity the primary driver. If clavicular has been gaining followers at 50,000+ per month recently, reaching 400,000 appears likely; slower growth would reduce probability. The main uncertainty involves whether current momentum continues or whether engagement plateaus. The critical data point will be follower count trajectory in August and September; a sharp slowdown in growth rate would likely shift market pricing downward. Secondary outcomes priced lower (450k at 81%, 500k at 70%) reflect diminishing probability of accelerating growth significantly beyond the base case.
- ›Current follower count as of July 2026 and monthly growth rate for the past 3 months
- ›Whether @clavicular maintains content production frequency and engagement levels that drove recent growth
- ›Any algorithm changes, platform policy shifts, or viral moments occurring between July and December 2026
- ›Follower acquisition rate needed monthly (roughly 57,000/month) to reach 400,000 from current position
- ›Comparison of follower velocity to historical patterns and whether growth is accelerating, plateauing, or declining
What moved the line
- Sep 12At least 550,000↓27pp33→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17At least 500,000↓22pp85→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12At least 450,000↓17pp77→60¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12At least 600,000↓13pp16→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11At least 500,000↑8pp83→91¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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