Jacqui Irwin · KXCAPRIMARY-2626
Jacqui Irwin is priced at 97¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside KXCAPRIMARY-2626.
Price history
97¢ current
Contract brief
If Jacqui Irwin advances in the 2026 CA-26 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jacqui Irwin
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Jacqui Irwin 94¢
Range
1¢-94¢
Family volume
$300
Identifier
KXCAPRIMARY-2626-JIRW
May 26, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
94¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$300
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · KXCAPRIMARY-2626
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$300
Orderbook snapshot
94 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Jacqui Irwin advances in the 2026 CA-26 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXCAPRIMARY-2626-JIRW
Event family
KXCAPRIMARY-2626.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$300
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Jacqui Irwin 94¢
Current share
100%
Jacqui Irwin
kalshi · KXCAPRIMARY-2626-JIRW
Sam Gallucci
kalshi · KXCAPRIMARY-2626-SGAL
Chris Espinosa
kalshi · KXCAPRIMARY-2626-CESP
Michael Koslow
kalshi · KXCAPRIMARY-2626-MKOS
Sonia Kacker
kalshi · KXCAPRIMARY-2626-SKAC
Daniel Miller
kalshi · KXCAPRIMARY-2626-DMIL
Liam Hernandez
kalshi · KXCAPRIMARY-2626-LHER
Sasan Samadzadeh
kalshi · KXCAPRIMARY-2626-SSAM
William Scott
kalshi · KXCAPRIMARY-2626-WSCO
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 97% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.