Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$580K
15 contracts
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-ESP
Cluster 2
Will France win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will France win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-FRA
Cluster 3
Will Mexico win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Mexico win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-MEX
Cluster 4
Will Argentina win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Argentina win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-ARG
Cluster 5
Will USA win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will USA win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-USA
Cluster 6
Will Germany win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Germany win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-GER
Cluster 7
Will Qatar win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Qatar win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-QAT
Cluster 8
Will Portugal win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Portugal win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-POR
Cluster 9
Will Norway win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Norway win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-NOR
Cluster 10
Will Morocco win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Morocco win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-MAR
Cluster 11
Will England win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will England win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-ENG
Cluster 12
Will Brazil win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Brazil win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-BRA
Cluster 13
Will Japan win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Japan win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-JPN
Cluster 14
Will Italy win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Italy win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-ITA
Cluster 15
Will Uruguay win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Uruguay win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
KXWC-30-URU
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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