Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 10%, Polymarket at 23% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
3 contracts
Polymarket
23%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
13pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5.4M
18 contracts
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
61 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 10¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 13pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (10¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (23¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
World Cup Winner
World Cup Winner : Germany
0x1595b4…1d16
World Cup Winner : Netherlands
0x9be563…eba1
World Cup Winner : Brazil
0x30d55d…178a
World Cup Winner : England
0x375409…fb1f
World Cup Winner : Portugal
0x4f3421…9fe8
World Cup Winner : France
0x9b6fef…b894
World Cup Winner : Spain
0x7976b8…2892
World Cup Winner : Argentina
0x0c4cd2…457f
Cluster 2
World Cup Group
World Cup Group I Winner: France
0x4ae4a0…fd05
World Cup Group F Winner: Netherlands
0x9ad73f…0669
World Cup Group F Winner: Japan
0xde6e83…6801
World Cup Group F Winner: Sweden
0x8bd82f…b23e
World Cup Group F Winner: Tunisia
0xeb021b…e17b
Cluster 3
Which continent will win the World Cup
Which continent will win the World Cup?: Asia
0x60acf0…00bc
Cluster 4
Will Kylian Mbappe lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament
Cluster 5
Will Harry Kane lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament
Cluster 6
Will Lamine Yamal lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament
Cluster 7
Will Neymar play in the World Cup
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
0xb60c04…4567
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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