Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 15 contracts. Kalshi at 18%, Polymarket at 23% — a 5pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
3 contracts
Polymarket
23%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
5pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$19.0M
15 contracts
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
51 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 18¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 5pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (18¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (23¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
World Cup Winner
World Cup Winner : Argentina
0x0c4cd2…457f
World Cup Winner : France
0x9b6fef…b894
World Cup Winner : Portugal
0x4f3421…9fe8
World Cup Winner : Spain
0x7976b8…2892
World Cup Winner : England
0x375409…fb1f
World Cup Winner : Netherlands
0x9be563…eba1
World Cup Winner : Brazil
0x30d55d…178a
World Cup Winner : Germany
0x1595b4…1d16
Cluster 2
World Cup Group
Cluster 3
Will IR Iran qualify f
Cluster 4
Will Neymar play in the World Cup
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
0xb60c04…4567
Cluster 5
Will Lamine Yamal lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament
Analysis
This market reflects a 27% probability that Iran will be removed from the 2026 FIFA World Cup before or during the tournament. The market is pricing in geopolitical tensions, potential sanctions escalation, and FIFA's discretionary enforcement of competition rules as meaningful risks to Iran's participation. The primary drivers of this probability are ongoing U.S.-Iran relations and whether additional international sanctions target Iranian sports participation, alongside FIFA's enforcement of political or security-related exclusion criteria. The key catalyst will be any announcement from FIFA regarding Iran's eligibility status in the months leading up to the June 2026 tournament, particularly if new sanctions packages or diplomatic developments emerge that specifically impact Iranian national team participation. Current market consensus suggests participants view removal as unlikely but material enough to warrant meaningful probability allocation.
- ›U.S. sanctions policy toward Iran in 2025-2026 and whether new measures explicitly target sports participation or freeze Iranian football federation assets
- ›FIFA's stated eligibility requirements and enforcement record regarding removal of national teams for geopolitical or security reasons versus domestic governance issues
- ›Current diplomatic developments between Iran and the international community that could trigger emergency FIFA Council decisions before June 2026
- ›Iran's qualification status confirmation (the team must first qualify for the tournament; removal assumes successful qualification first)
- ›Historical precedent: FIFA has suspended or removed nations primarily for internal governance failures (Zimbabwe, Kenya) rather than external geopolitical pressure, making removal a lower-probability event
What moved the line
- Jun 16IR Iran↓12pp56→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Japan↓9pp28→19¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Japan↑8pp19→27¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17France↑6pp71→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15IR Iran↓6pp62→56¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in iran
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 48% · 0d
- Will Iran Play in the World Cuplast 97% · 1d
- IR Iran vs. New Zealandlast 55% · 1d
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30last 83% · 2d
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027last 96% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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