Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
40 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will IR Iran qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16
Will IR Iran qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16?: IR Iran
KXWCROUND-26RO16-IRI
Analysis
This market reflects a 27% probability that Iran will be removed from the 2026 FIFA World Cup before or during the tournament. The market is pricing in geopolitical tensions, potential sanctions escalation, and FIFA's discretionary enforcement of competition rules as meaningful risks to Iran's participation. The primary drivers of this probability are ongoing U.S.-Iran relations and whether additional international sanctions target Iranian sports participation, alongside FIFA's enforcement of political or security-related exclusion criteria. The key catalyst will be any announcement from FIFA regarding Iran's eligibility status in the months leading up to the June 2026 tournament, particularly if new sanctions packages or diplomatic developments emerge that specifically impact Iranian national team participation. Current market consensus suggests participants view removal as unlikely but material enough to warrant meaningful probability allocation.
- ›U.S. sanctions policy toward Iran in 2025-2026 and whether new measures explicitly target sports participation or freeze Iranian football federation assets
- ›FIFA's stated eligibility requirements and enforcement record regarding removal of national teams for geopolitical or security reasons versus domestic governance issues
- ›Current diplomatic developments between Iran and the international community that could trigger emergency FIFA Council decisions before June 2026
- ›Iran's qualification status confirmation (the team must first qualify for the tournament; removal assumes successful qualification first)
- ›Historical precedent: FIFA has suspended or removed nations primarily for internal governance failures (Zimbabwe, Kenya) rather than external geopolitical pressure, making removal a lower-probability event
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (13% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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