Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 19%, Polymarket at 23% — a 4pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
6 contracts
Polymarket
23%
14 contracts
Cross-venue gap
4pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$589K
20 contracts
Top contract
16¢
$127K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 19¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 4pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (19¢, 6 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (23¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “2026 FIFA World Cup Winner” vs “Will IR Iran qualify f”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : France
0x9b6fef…b894
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Spain
0x7976b8…2892
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Netherlands
0x9be563…eba1
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Germany
0x1595b4…1d16
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Portugal
0x4f3421…9fe8
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Argentina
0x0c4cd2…457f
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : England
0x375409…fb1f
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Brazil
0x30d55d…178a
Cluster 2
Will IR Iran qualify f
Will IR Iran qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: IR Iran
KXWCROUND-26SEMI-IRI
Will IR Iran qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16?: IR Iran
KXWCROUND-26RO16-IRI
Will IR Iran qualify from World Cup Group G?: IR Iran
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26G-IRI
Will IR Iran qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: IR Iran
KXWCROUND-26FINAL-IRI
Cluster 3
FIFA World Cup Group
Cluster 4
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0xb60c04…4567
Cluster 5
Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0x160dbf…cf81
Cluster 6
Which continent will win the 2026 Fifa World Cup
Which continent will win the 2026 Fifa World Cup?: Asia
0x60acf0…00bc
Cluster 7
Iran to compete in FIFA World Cup in 2026: Yes
Iran to compete in FIFA World Cup in 2026: Yes
KXWCIRAN-26
Cluster 8
Will Lamine Yamal lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament
What moved the line
- Apr 28Asia↑24pp2→26¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Asia↓23pp26→3¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Spain↑17pp16→33¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28France↓12pp70→58¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29France↑12pp58→70¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
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Strait of Hormuz Normalization Reprices: May Contract Jumps +5¢ as Iran Tensions Evolve
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of May jumped +5¢ to 39¢ while the April contract expired at 0¢. This repricing suggests traders see meaningful probability of a US-Iran deal or de-escalation within the next month, with direct oil market implications.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.