SimpleFunctions

Before July 2026 · Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before J

Before July 2026 is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before J.

Price history

3¢ current

2¢
0¢5¢
May 21, 2026Jun 5, 2026

Contract brief

If a Congressional stock trading ban has passed the House after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before July 2026

Rank

#2 of 2

Leader

Before 2027 19¢

Range

3¢-19¢

Family volume

$151

Identifier

KXSTOCKBANHOUSE-26JUL01

Jun 5, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

3¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 5, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$3

Family rank

#2 of 2

2 outcomes · Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before J

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Family volume

$151

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 7¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
100¢100
3¢24
2¢1.1K
2¢20
AskSize
7¢2
8¢108
9¢100
11¢200
30¢2

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If a Congressional stock trading ban has passed the House after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Identifier

KXSTOCKBANHOUSE-26JUL01

SF Signal
SF Index
0.00
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before J.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$151

Outcomes

2

Highest price

Before 2027 19¢

Current share

2%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

45111.7%
43.2%
Adj IY
0%
32
LAS
1.33

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.