Will crypto be regulated in the US?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+28pp
3h ago
24h volume
$7K
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 4, 2027
165 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 15% of their title tokens — “Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before Jan 1, 2027” vs “Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 2
Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027
Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027
KXSNAPRESTRICT-27-JAN04
Cluster 3
AI regulation by 2027
AI regulation by 2027?: By Jan 1, 2027
KXAILEGISLATION-27-JAN01
What moved the line
- Jul 22Before 2027↑27pp41→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Before 2027↑11pp30→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Before 2027↑8pp21→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Before 2027↑6pp29→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Before Jan 4, 2027↓4pp19→15¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in legislation
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- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 46d
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 60d
- Will sports prediction markets be banned?last 21% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In legislation
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.