Will AI be regulated?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$35K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 4, 2027
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Best AI in Dec 2026” vs “Will legislation that”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Best AI in Dec 2026
Cluster 2
Will legislation that
Will legislation that imposes liability for damages caused by a chatbot impersonating certain licensed professionals become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes
KXNYAIBILL-27JAN01
Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXSTOCKBANHOUSE-27JAN01
Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?: Before July 2026
KXSTOCKBANHOUSE-26JUL01
Cluster 3
Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027
Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027
KXSNAPRESTRICT-27-JAN04
Cluster 4
AI regulation by 2027
AI regulation by 2027?: By Jan 1, 2027
KXAILEGISLATION-27-JAN01
What moved the line
- Jun 4Yes↓11pp81→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Yes↑8pp73→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Yes↑5pp68→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Claude↑3pp65→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Yes↓3pp70→67¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in ai tech
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 3d
- Largest Company end of May?: NVIDIAlast 97% · 4d
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $240last 3% · 6d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 7d
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of April?: $200last 5% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ai tech.
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Model Race Intensifies as Anthropic Gains on OpenAI
The AI leadership race is heating up with Anthropic's Claude 5 release expectation jumping 16¢ to 38¢ for a June 30 launch, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 probability dropped 8¢ to 79¢. Markets now favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by end of June at 84¢. The 'Best AI in Jun' contract trades at 63¢ for Anthropic vs 16¢ for Google.
OpenAI IPO Fading: 'No IPO by 2026' Surges to 66¢
OpenAI's IPO probability continues declining as markets price in long-term privacy, while Databricks emerges as the likely AI bellwether for a potential tech listing window reopening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.