Will AI be regulated?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+10pp
5h ago
24h volume
$25K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 4, 2027
165 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Best AI on Dec 31, 2026” vs “Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before Jan 1, 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026
Cluster 2
Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 3
Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027
Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027
KXSNAPRESTRICT-27-JAN04
Cluster 4
AI regulation by 2027
AI regulation by 2027?: By Jan 1, 2027
KXAILEGISLATION-27-JAN01
What moved the line
- Jul 22Before 2027↑27pp41→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Before 2027↑11pp30→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Before 2027↑8pp21→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Before 2027↑6pp29→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Claude↑4pp62→66¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in ai tech
- Will OpenAI go public?last 52% · 0d
- Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?last 99% · 0d
- How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?last 24% · 1d
- Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 15, 2026last 97% · 15d
- Will SpaceX be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026last 4% · 22d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ai tech.
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Model Race: Claude Leads, GPT-6 Expected by 2027
Anthropic's Claude is heavily favored as the best AI model in July 2026 (96¢), and OpenAI's GPT-6 release before 2027 is priced at 82¢. These markets reflect intensifying competition and investor focus on AI leadership.
Anthropic Widens Lead in AI Model Race Ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Release
Anthropic's models are trading at 83¢ to be crowned 'Best AI in July 2026', while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 release has a 73% probability of launching within the next 4 days. The competition is fierce and directly relevant to AI infrastructure spending, compute pricing, and tech sector valuations.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.