Will AI be regulated?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
16h ago
24h volume
$53K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 4, 2027
120 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Best AI on Dec 31, 2026” vs “AI regulation by 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026
Cluster 2
AI regulation by 2027
AI regulation by 2027?: By Jan 1, 2027
KXAILEGISLATION-27-JAN01
Cluster 3
Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027
Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027
KXSNAPRESTRICT-27-JAN04
What moved the line
- Sep 2ChatGPT↑6pp13→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Claude↓6pp68→62¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Claude↓6pp62→56¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5Claude↑5pp56→61¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3ChatGPT↑4pp19→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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AI model race heats up with GPT-6 looming and high volume on 'Best AI' contracts
OpenAI is heavily favored to release GPT-6 soon (99¢), but the market for 'Best AI on Dec 31, 2026' shows a tight race, with Anthropic (61¢) leading over OpenAI (22¢). This competitive dynamic is drawing significant volume and trader interest.
AI Race Heats Up: GPT‑6 Release Nears Certainty, But Best AI Title Still Open
OpenAI’s GPT‑6 release before Oct 1 is priced at 87¢, while the ‘Best AI on Dec 31, 2026’ market shows OpenAI leading at 68¢ but with heavy volume on multiple sub‑contracts. The discrepancy between the generic ‘OpenAI’ contract (68¢) and the specific ticker KXLLM1-26DEC31‑OAI (20¢) presents an arbitrage opportunity. Traders should monitor upcoming model benchmarks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.