Liberal Party · KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04
Liberal Party is priced at 78¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 79¢ bid, 80¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04.
Price history
78¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If Liberal Party wins the 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Liberal Party
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Liberal Party 79¢
Range
1¢-79¢
Family volume
$246
Identifier
KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PL
Aug 17, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
79¢
Ask
80¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$12K
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Family volume
$246
Orderbook snapshot
79 / 80¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Liberal Party wins the 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Identifier
KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PL
Event family
KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$246
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Liberal Party 79¢
Current share
100%
Liberal Party
kalshi · KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PL
Brazilian Democratic Movement
kalshi · KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-MDB
Brazil Union
kalshi · KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-UNIAO
Social Democratic Party
kalshi · KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PSD
Workers' Party
kalshi · KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.