Will Middlesbrough FC be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2025-26 season?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will Middlesbrough FC be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2025-26 season?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing May 22, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite an unusually high implied yield of 1677% on the Yes side, suggesting the 35¢ price may be stale or reflect very thin order book conditions rather than genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite an unusually high implied yield of 1677% on the Yes side, suggesting the 35¢ price may be stale or reflect very thin order book conditions rather than genuine market consensus. With only $12,076 in open interest and 36 days to expiry, the market is vulnerable to sharp repricing once the 2025-26 season concludes, and the 4¢ spread indicates minimal trading activity. The realized volatility of 2455% and cliff risk index of 2 suggest this contract has experienced dramatic price swings, likely driven by sporadic large trades in a low-liquidity environment rather than fundamental shifts in Middlesbrough's promotion odds.
Resolution rules
If Middlesbrough FC is promoted from the EFL Championship during the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEFLPROMO-26-MID yes 100