Will New York M win at least 100 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will New York M win at least 100 games this season?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and distress signals despite a reasonable 205-day time horizon: zero 24-hour volume, just $904 open interest, and a massive 9¢ spread indicate virtually no active trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and distress signals despite a reasonable 205-day time horizon: zero 24-hour volume, just $904 open interest, and a massive 9¢ spread indicate virtually no active trading. The Yes contract has collapsed 72% over seven days (18¢ to 5¢), yet the astronomical 3380% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 4742% realized volatility suggests the price may have overshot downward—such extreme yields typically indicate mispricing in thin markets rather than genuine opportunity. The high cliff risk index (19) and info arrival rate (0.8/h) warrant caution, as this contract appears prone to sudden repricing on any substantive news about the team's roster or performance trajectory.
Resolution rules
If New York M has 100+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-NYM-26-T100 yes 100