Will Oakland win at least 65 games this season?

Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Oakland win at least 65 games this season?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility with only $39 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 46¢ price potentially unreliable.

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98¢
Bid/Ask 85/97¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $38·Closes Nov 8, 2026·198d remaining
KXMLBWINS-ATH-26-T65
7-day price160 snapshots · 2 regime
86¢85¢ current
Apr 81¢Apr 23

Analysis

7d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility with only $39 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 46¢ price potentially unreliable. The massive 758% implied yield on the "No" side and 1546% realized volatility suggest the market has experienced wild swings—notably a dramatic 42-cent drop from 81¢ to 39¢ over seven days—indicating thin order books and possible price manipulation or data anomalies. With 205 days until expiration and a neutral regime, this micro-market lacks sufficient liquidity to serve as a meaningful probability signal for Oakland's 65-win threshold.

Resolution rules

If Oakland has 65+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 32.6%
IY (No) 1045.9%
Adj IY 523%
CRI 6
Overround 2.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)32.6%
IY (No)1045.9%
Adj IY523%
CRI6
Overround2.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
12¢
Computed
4/24/2026, 9:50:29 AM
Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 9:38:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXMLBWINS-ATH-26-T65 yes 100

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