December 31, 2026 · Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by
December 31, 2026 is priced at 39¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 29¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 21¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
39¢ current
+24¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Outcome
December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$30K
Identifier
0xf53d2cf8...571a
Jun 6, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
29¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
21¢
24h volume
$4
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$30K
Orderbook snapshot
29 / 50¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xf53d2cf8…571a
Event family
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$30K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
December 31, 2026 38¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.