When will GPT-5 be released?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 9 contracts. Kalshi at 32%, Polymarket at 72% — a 40pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
6 contracts
Polymarket
72%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
40pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
207 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 32¢ · Polymarket 72¢ · 40pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (32¢, 6 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (72¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will OpenAI” vs “GPT-5.6 released by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?: December 31, 2026
0xf53d2c…571a
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26JUL01
Cluster 2
GPT-5.6 released by
GPT-5.6 released by...?: June 30
0xe69b38…7224
GPT-5.6 released by...?: July 31
0xadc76e…52e4
Cluster 3
Winds of Winter release date announced
Winds of Winter release date announced?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXTWOW-27-JAN01
What moved the line
- Jun 3December 31, 2026↑13pp22→35¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5December 31, 2026↑12pp28→40¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4December 31, 2026↓7pp35→28¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2June 30↑5pp86→91¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4June 30↓5pp90→85¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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