When will GPT-5 be released?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−3pp
17h ago
24h volume
$5K
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
144 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before” vs “Winds of Winter release date announced”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01
Cluster 2
Winds of Winter release date announced
Winds of Winter release date announced?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXTWOW-27-JAN01
What moved the line
- Aug 2Before Nov 1, 2026↑18pp48→66¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Before Nov 1, 2026↑15pp50→65¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Before Nov 1, 2026↓9pp60→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9Before Nov 1, 2026↓9pp65→56¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Before Nov 1, 2026↓8pp58→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.