Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $136 end of April?

The 68¢ price implies a 68% probability that PLTR closes above $136 by April 30, 2026, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 28¢ spread, suggesting this quote may not reflect genuine trading interest. The extreme realized volatility of 363% and the sharp 13¢ price decline over seven days indicate significant uncertainty, while the astronomical implied yields (1507% for Yes, 6804% for No) reflect the thin liquidity and short 11-day timeframe rather than genuine edge. With only $2.2M open interest and a neutral regime, this market appears to be pricing in substantial tail risk, but traders should be cautious given the lack of recent volume and the potential for wide slippage on execution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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