Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $142 end of April?

The 72¢ price implies a 72% probability that PLTR closes above $142 by April 30, 2026, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 23¢ spread, making this quote potentially unreliable. The extraordinarily high implied yields (1449% for Yes, 7179% for No) and extreme realized volatility of 507% suggest either mispricing or that the market is pricing in massive uncertainty around a $142 target roughly 70% above current levels. With only 11 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this appears to be a thin, speculative contract where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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