Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $148 end of April?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $100 in 24-hour volume against $645k open interest, creating a dangerously wide 29¢ spread and inflated annualized yields of 3213% on both sides. With PLTR needing to move from its current level to above $148 in just 11 days and the market pricing this at exactly 50-50 odds, the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest limited conviction, though the cliff risk index of 1 indicates binary event sensitivity near expiration. The symmetric yield structure and tight timeframe make this a speculative bet rather than a fundamental value proposition, with resolution dependent on end-of-month stock performance rather than market microstructure.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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