Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $154 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 30¢ bid-ask spread despite modest $2.2M open interest, suggesting the 30¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The implied yield of 8,504% on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high and likely a mispricing artifact of the illiquid conditions rather than a genuine market signal. With only 10 days to expiry and PLTR needing to rally roughly 40% from current levels to clear $154, the 30% probability appears reasonable on fundamentals, but traders should be cautious of execution risk given the thin market depth.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Indicators

Regime

Trade