Will Pep Guardiola cease to be manager of Manchester City before Aug 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Pep Guardiola cease to be manager of Manchester City before Aug 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing August 8, 2026. The market is pricing in a 28% probability of Guardiola's departure before August 2026, but the Yes side offers an extreme 935.8% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk—particularly given his contract situation and recent managerial stability at City.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 28% probability of Guardiola's departure before August 2026, but the Yes side offers an extreme 935.8% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk—particularly given his contract situation and recent managerial stability at City. Volume is thin at just $82 in 24-hour trading with only $128.55 open interest, raising liquidity concerns for larger positions, though the 1¢ spread is tight. The price has climbed 5 cents over seven days (21¢ to 26¢) with 111 days to expiry, indicating modest recent bullish sentiment, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional pressure.
Resolution rules
If Pep Guardiola ceases to be the manager of Manchester City starting Apr 16, 2026 and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMANAGERSOUT-26AUG01EPL-PGUA yes 100