SimpleFunctions
KalshiAug 3, 202692 days left

Will Portugal qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?

This contract is priced at 29¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 28¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Implied probability

29¢
$2K volume
$1K liquidity
156% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$1K

Best sibling

France 38¢

Ticker

KXWCROUND-26SEMI-POR

Price history

29¢ current

+3¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

28 / 30¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
28¢1.3K
27¢4.0K
23¢5
21¢50
20¢1
AskSize
30¢4.0K
31¢4.1K
34¢6
35¢55
37¢170

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Portugal is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 3, 2026

Identifier

KXWCROUND-26SEMI-POR

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1020.8%

IY (No)

154.4%

Adj IY

474%

CRI

3

Overround

4.3%

LAS

0.07

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

1020.8%
154.4%
Adj IY
474%
3
Overround
4.3%
LAS
0.07

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