SimpleFunctions
KalshiAug 3, 202692 days left

Will USA qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?

This contract is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

11¢
$1K volume
$739 liquidity
91% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$1K

Best sibling

France 38¢

Ticker

KXWCROUND-26SEMI-USA

Price history

11¢ current

+7¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 1, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 12¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
11¢2.2K
10¢4.0K
4¢4
3¢80
2¢2.1K
AskSize
12¢1.7K
13¢4.0K
14¢55
22¢120
23¢15

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If USA is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 3, 2026

Identifier

KXWCROUND-26SEMI-USA

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3212.0%

IY (No)

49.1%

Adj IY

1606%

CRI

8

Overround

4.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

3212.0%
49.1%
Adj IY
1606%
8
Overround
4.3%

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