What is the current probability for "Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 7, 2026. 3 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 617.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

PolymarketMay 7, 20263 days left

Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 6¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

5¢

$2K volume

$2K liquidity

110% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$2K

Best sibling

Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections 94¢

Ticker

0xb8324a13…77d2

Price history

5¢ current

−4¢

Apr 26, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

2 / 8¢

Polymarket

6¢ spread

BidSize

100¢40

100¢24

100¢10

100¢33

2¢56

2¢23

0¢266

0¢110

AskSize

8¢6

9¢231

9¢55

12¢123

42¢10

59¢220

59¢972

59¢7

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 7, 2026

Identifier

0xb8324a13…77d2

Event family

Related outcomes.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$2K

Outcomes