Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?
This contract is priced at 36¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 29¢ bid, 42¢ ask, 13¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$2K
Best sibling
May 31 6¢
Ticker
0x25e961b7…f1ca
Price history
36¢ current
−7¢Orderbook snapshot
29 / 42¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Vovchanski Khutory" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Vovchansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vovchansk.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pEumzu6kdCPQ2sYt7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x25e961b7…f1ca
Event family
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
December 31 36¢
Current share
30%
December 31
polymarket · 0x25e961b73889e80bb2e8e7e9611aa573cf5f7cae0d7db8a488256cf758f0f1ca
May 31
polymarket · 0xf7ffb48c52e71a70eda74c2982342a3b70832c0eb7ed461a09fad631d62ad3c7
September 30
polymarket · 0xbc43a765b1fb2a7ffabf7d57cc64be3754a07f6dbbb657130b520875f204c772
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
US Oil Sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia in 2026: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Shock
A deep-dive into US oil sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia heading into 2026—covering Trump 2.0 policy, secondary sanctions, shadow fleets, global oil balances, European energy security, India/China behavior, and how prediction markets are pricing the next shock.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
How Bitcoin & Ethereum Crypto 2026 Price Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Leg of the Cycle
Deep-dive for crypto investors and traders into Bitcoin and Ethereum 2026 price prediction markets. Learn how BTC/ETH halving base rates, ETF flows, DeFi/L2 growth, and global regulation shape market-implied odds for 2026 price targets.
Cuba Regime 2026: Post-Castro Era Prediction Markets and the Risk of Sudden Change
In-depth guide to Cuba regime 2026 post-Castro era prediction markets. Analyze Cuba’s economic crisis, Diaz-Canel’s stability, U.S.–Cuba policy, migration surge, and support from Venezuela, Russia, and China to find mispriced regime risks through 2026.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 36% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.