Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...
Leader sits at 36% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
September 30
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$681
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by
Analysis
This contract asks whether Russian forces will capture the entire city of Vovchansk, located in northeastern Ukraine's Kharkiv region, by a specified date. The current 5% probability reflects market skepticism about rapid Russian territorial gains in this sector. The assessment hinges on Russia's current military momentum near Vovchansk, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and available Russian resources to commit to this objective versus other fronts. The main driver of probability changes would be observable shifts in frontline positions—either Russian forces advancing significantly toward or into Vovchansk, or Ukrainian counteroffensives stabilizing or pushing back Russian positions. Military situation updates and battlefield reports over the coming weeks will provide the clearest signals about feasibility, as sustained Russian offensives require continuous supply lines and troop availability that can fluctuate based on broader strategic priorities.
- ›Current distance of Russian forces from Vovchansk and rate of advance or retreat along the Kupiansk-Vovchansk axis based on verified frontline maps
- ›Ukrainian defensive fortifications and troop concentrations in and around Vovchansk relative to Russian assault capabilities
- ›Russian force composition, casualties, and logistical capacity currently allocated to the Kharkiv sector versus commitment to other operational areas
- ›Historical pace of Russian urban warfare operations and typical duration required to capture fortified cities of similar scale
- ›Availability of Western military aid to Ukraine and timing of new weapon system deliveries that could affect defensive or counter-offensive capability
What moved the line
- Apr 28May 31↑38pp11→49¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓37pp49→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 1December 31↓10pp54→44¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29September 30↓10pp47→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 2May 31↓9pp14→5¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Other questions in ukraine.
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske: Battlefield Market Resolves at 93¢
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' contract surged +88¢ to 93¢ in a single session, one of the largest single-day moves in the entire dataset. The May 31 version also jumped +79¢ to 96¢. This near-certain resolution suggests Ukrainian forces have successfully re-entered the contested town of Rodynske.
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' market exploded +92¢ to 96¢, one of the single largest moves in the entire dataset today. This effectively confirms Ukrainian forces have re-taken the town of Rodynske, representing a significant tactical reversal in the Donetsk region.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.