Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...
Leader sits at 78% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 64%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
64¢
December 31
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$40K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30
0x445895…7e4b
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: December 31, 2026
0x7e50b6…4009
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30, 2026
0xb23587…78fe
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: May 31, 2026
0xc13c31…bdc2
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...?: May 31
0x1a68c8…3997
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?: June 30
0x7ef136…73bf
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?: December 31
0x627ed3…f863
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?: May 31
0xe43234…a91d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?: May 31
0xadcbab…7b55
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?: May 31
0xf7ffb4…d3c7
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...?: May 31
0x45c18b…3392
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?: December 31
0x25e961…f1ca
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?: May 31
0xc5a2aa…9807
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?: September 30
0x27f3e1…3081
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?: December 31
0xb4aea2…bb78
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?: September 30
0xcd5f73…0474
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?: June 30
0x72e3f7…f96e
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?: December 31
0x9051c3…052e
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?: May 31
0x86b4ee…6599
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?: September 30
0xbc43a7…c772
What moved the line
- Apr 28May 31↑38pp11→49¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓37pp49→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 2December 31↑21pp16→37¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑17pp4→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 1May 31↓13pp45→32¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Other questions in ukraine.
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske: Battlefield Market Resolves at 93¢
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' contract surged +88¢ to 93¢ in a single session, one of the largest single-day moves in the entire dataset. The May 31 version also jumped +79¢ to 96¢. This near-certain resolution suggests Ukrainian forces have successfully re-entered the contested town of Rodynske.
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' market exploded +92¢ to 96¢, one of the single largest moves in the entire dataset today. This effectively confirms Ukrainian forces have re-taken the town of Rodynske, representing a significant tactical reversal in the Donetsk region.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.