Will Sabrina Carpenter attend The Met Gala 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will Sabrina Carpenter attend The Met Gala 2026?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high 94% probability that Sabrina Carpenter will attend the 2026 Met Gala, yet the No side offers a wildly asymmetric 2,708% implied yield compared to just 7.5% for Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely high 94% probability that Sabrina Carpenter will attend the 2026 Met Gala, yet the No side offers a wildly asymmetric 2,708% implied yield compared to just 7.5% for Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns. With only $1,863 in open interest and $145 in daily volume, this thin liquidity makes the 94¢ price potentially unreliable, and the massive cliff risk index of 19 indicates significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics. The recent price decline from 96¢ to 95¢ over seven days combined with the 256-day timeframe to expiry provides ample room for repricing if Carpenter's career trajectory or Met Gala eligibility changes.
Resolution rules
If Sabrina Carpenter attends The Met Gala 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMETGALA-SAB yes 100