Will Sam Smith attend The Met Gala 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Will Sam Smith attend The Met Gala 2026?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward momentum, declining 22 percentage points over seven days from 82¢ to 60¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction in Smith's attendance despite the current 60% probability pricing.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward momentum, declining 22 percentage points over seven days from 82¢ to 60¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction in Smith's attendance despite the current 60% probability pricing. The extremely wide 37¢ spread and minimal 24-hour volume of $18.25 indicate severe illiquidity, making this price potentially unreliable for serious traders. The asymmetric yield profile—with the No side offering 214.2% implied yield versus 95.2% for Yes—reflects the market's uncertainty and suggests the 60¢ price may not represent consensus given the thin order book.
Resolution rules
If Sam Smith attends The Met Gala 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMETGALA-26-SAM yes 100