Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?

The SAVE Act market is pricing in just a 12% chance of passage before the 2027 deadline, with a notable 1¢ cross-venue gap favoring Kalshi (12¢) over Polymarket (11¢), suggesting some arbitrage opportunity. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,130% on the Yes side reflects the long-shot odds, though the modest 24-hour volume of $10.8k against $1.4M open interest indicates relatively thin liquidity for such a speculative position. The slight 7-day downtrend from 12¢ to 11¢ and elevated cliff risk score of 8 suggest recent skepticism about passage, possibly tied to legislative momentum or political headwinds.

Resolution rules

If the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade