Will Spencer Fano be drafted before pick 10.5 in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 19%, Polymarket at 25% — a 6pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
16 contracts
Polymarket
25%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
6pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$808K
18 contracts
Top contract
30¢
$165K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 19¢ · Polymarket 25¢ · 6pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (19¢, 16 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (25¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
12 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before” vs “Will the U.S”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before
Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXLABORSECCONF-26-JUL01
Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXLABORSECCONF-26-JAN01
Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXLABORSECCONF-26-AUG01
Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXLABORSECCONF-26-SEP01
Cluster 2
Will the U.S
Cluster 3
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
Cluster 4
Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by Ju
Cluster 5
Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election?: Spencer Pratt
KXMAYORLA-26-SPRA
Cluster 6
Will Elon Musk win Musk v. Altman et al
Will Elon Musk win Musk v. Altman et al?: Before 2027
KXMUSKOAI-26
Cluster 7
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
0xbb4d51…1f3b
Cluster 8
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027
KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04
Cluster 9
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before June
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN
Cluster 10
When will SpaceX IPO
When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01
Cluster 11
Will Luka Doncic play in a game for Los Angeles L before May 7, 2026
Will Luka Doncic play in a game for Los Angeles L before May 7, 2026?: Before May 7, 2026
KXNBARETURN-26LALLDON-507
Cluster 12
Will Spencer Rattler be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Spencer Rattler be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Spencer Rattler
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-SRAT
What moved the line
- Apr 29Before May 7, 2026↓20pp33→13¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Before Jan 1, 2027↓19pp75→56¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Before 2027↑8pp49→57¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Before 2027↓8pp42→34¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?↑7pp22→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.