Will Spencer Fano be drafted before pick 10.5 in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$262K
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 4, 2027
193 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before” vs “Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before
Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXLABORSECCONF-26-JAN01
Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXLABORSECCONF-26-SEP01
Cluster 2
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027
KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04
Cluster 3
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: Before 2027
KXALIENS-27
Cluster 4
Will Spencer Rattler be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Will Spencer Rattler be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Spencer Rattler
KXNFLTRADE-26DEC01-SRAT
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that Spencer Fano will be selected in the 2026 NFL Draft before the 10th overall pick, currently estimated at 19%. The aggregate probability combines pricing from two venues with modest divergence, suggesting limited consensus on whether Fano will merit a top-10 selection. The 19% level indicates most participants view this outcome as unlikely, consistent with the possibility that scouts rank other prospects higher or that Fano's draft position falls outside the designated range. The NFL Draft in late April 2026 will definitively resolve this question, making pre-draft performance metrics, team workouts, and final mock drafts the primary drivers of probability shifts in the weeks before the event.
- ›Fano's combine performance metrics and on-field measurements compared to other top prospects at his position
- ›Positional depth and team needs at pick 10.5, which determines whether a team prioritizes Fano or alternative prospects
- ›Mock draft consensus from major scouting outlets and official NFL team signals regarding Fano's projected range
- ›Injury status and any medical red flags disclosed during the pre-draft evaluation period
- ›Trading activity and team movements up or down the draft board that could alter which organizations have access to the 10.5 pick
What moved the line
- Jun 22Before Sep 1, 2026↓5pp13→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Before Sep 1, 2026↓3pp16→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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