Will Sonny Styles be drafted before Jeremiyah Love
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 19%, Polymarket at 25% — a 6pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
16 contracts
Polymarket
25%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
6pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$649K
18 contracts
Top contract
30¢
$165K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 19¢ · Polymarket 25¢ · 6pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (19¢, 16 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (25¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
11 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Harry Styles” vs “Will the U.S”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Harry Styles
Will Harry Styles and Zoe Kravitz be married Before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXMARRIAGESTYLESKRAVITZ-HSZK-27JUL01
Will Harry Styles be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Harry Styles
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-HAR
Will Harry Styles be on Jimmy Kimmel Live! before 2027?: Harry Styles
KXMEDIAGUESTKIMMEL-27-HAR
Will Harry Styles and Zoe Kravitz be married Before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXMARRIAGESTYLESKRAVITZ-HSZK-28JAN01
Will Harry Styles and Zoe Kravitz be married Before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXMARRIAGESTYLESKRAVITZ-HSZK-27JAN01
Cluster 2
Will the U.S
Cluster 3
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
Cluster 4
Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by Ju
Cluster 5
Will Elon Musk win Musk v. Altman et al
Will Elon Musk win Musk v. Altman et al?: Before 2027
KXMUSKOAI-26
Cluster 6
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
0xbb4d51…1f3b
Cluster 7
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027
KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04
Cluster 8
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before June
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN
Cluster 9
When will SpaceX IPO
When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01
Cluster 10
Will Luka Doncic play in a game for Los Angeles L before May 7, 2026
Will Luka Doncic play in a game for Los Angeles L before May 7, 2026?: Before May 7, 2026
KXNBARETURN-26LALLDON-507
Cluster 11
Will Sonny Styles win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Sonny Styles win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Sonny Styles
KXNFLDROTY-27-SSTY
What moved the line
- Apr 29Before May 7, 2026↓20pp33→13¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Sonny Styles↑10pp3→13¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Before 2027↑8pp49→57¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Before 2027↓8pp42→34¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?↑7pp22→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.