SimpleFunctions
8 source contracts·Kalshi 8·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 28, 2028 · 616d

Will Sonny Styles be drafted before Jeremiyah Love

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 8 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

26%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

26%

8 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$77K

8 contracts

Closes

Feb 28, 2028

616 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 31% (27 days, 27 points)Aggregate: 31% on 2026-06-21
Aggregate of 8 contracts · 27d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 8 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will Harry Styles” vs “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Analysis

This market reflects the 26% probability that Sonny Styles will be selected in the NFL Draft before Jeremiyah Love is selected. Both players are collegiate prospects competing for draft positioning, and their relative draft order depends on evaluations by NFL teams, combine performance, medical clearances, and final pre-draft assessments. The current probability suggests market participants view Love as more likely to be drafted first. The main factors driving this level are their respective college production, physical attributes, and team needs as communicated through mock drafts and official draft order. The uncertainty resolves during the 2026 NFL Draft when both players' selections occur or don't occur, eliminating guesswork with certainty. Shifts in this probability would reflect significant changes in evaluations, injuries, or explicit draft signals from NFL franchises.

  • Comparative college production statistics and on-field performance metrics between the two prospects
  • Physical measurements and combine test results once available, which directly influence draft rankings
  • Injury reports or medical evaluations that could affect either player's draft status or timeline
  • Mock draft trends from major outlets and analyst consensus, which aggregate professional evaluation
  • Explicit draft signals from NFL teams with high selections, including interviews, pre-draft visits, and positional needs

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.