Will Sonny Styles be drafted before Jeremiyah Love
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26K
8 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
521 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will Harry Styles” vs “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Harry Styles
Will Harry Styles and Zoe Kravitz be married Before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXMARRIAGESTYLESKRAVITZ-HSZK-27JUL01
Will Harry Styles be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Harry Styles
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-HAR
Will Harry Styles be on Jimmy Kimmel Live! before 2027?: Harry Styles
KXMEDIAGUESTKIMMEL-27-HAR
Will Harry Styles and Zoe Kravitz be married Before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXMARRIAGESTYLESKRAVITZ-HSZK-28JAN01
Will Harry Styles and Zoe Kravitz be married Before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXMARRIAGESTYLESKRAVITZ-HSZK-27JAN01
Cluster 2
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: Before 2027
KXALIENS-27
Cluster 3
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027
KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04
Cluster 4
Will Sonny Styles win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Sonny Styles win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Sonny Styles
KXNFLDROTY-27-SSTY
Analysis
This market reflects the 26% probability that Sonny Styles will be selected in the NFL Draft before Jeremiyah Love is selected. Both players are collegiate prospects competing for draft positioning, and their relative draft order depends on evaluations by NFL teams, combine performance, medical clearances, and final pre-draft assessments. The current probability suggests market participants view Love as more likely to be drafted first. The main factors driving this level are their respective college production, physical attributes, and team needs as communicated through mock drafts and official draft order. The uncertainty resolves during the 2026 NFL Draft when both players' selections occur or don't occur, eliminating guesswork with certainty. Shifts in this probability would reflect significant changes in evaluations, injuries, or explicit draft signals from NFL franchises.
- ›Comparative college production statistics and on-field performance metrics between the two prospects
- ›Physical measurements and combine test results once available, which directly influence draft rankings
- ›Injury reports or medical evaluations that could affect either player's draft status or timeline
- ›Mock draft trends from major outlets and analyst consensus, which aggregate professional evaluation
- ›Explicit draft signals from NFL teams with high selections, including interviews, pre-draft visits, and positional needs
What moved the line
- Sep 19Before Jul 1, 2027↓43pp47→4¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Harry Styles↓15pp17→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Harry Styles↓15pp19→4¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Before Jul 1, 2027↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Before Jan 1, 2027↓11pp23→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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