H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

The SAVE Act market is pricing in an 11% probability of passage by end-2026 with extremely asymmetric payoffs—a "Yes" bet offers 1,151% implied yield versus just 17.6% for "No"—though the modest $549.82 daily volume and $45k open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The contract has declined 1 cent over seven days and maintains a tight 1-cent spread with matching prices across Polymarket and Kalshi, indicating reasonable market efficiency despite the low probability and elevated cliff risk score of 8. With 257 days to expiration, the high-yield asymmetry reflects genuine legislative uncertainty rather than obvious mispricing, though traders should account for potential volatility as the deadline approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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