Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$57K
16 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
451 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Oliver Larkin be the Democratic nominee for FL-25
Will Oliver Larkin be the Democratic nominee for FL-25?: Oliver Larkin
KXFLPRIMARY-25D26-OLAR
Cluster 2
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic nominee for FL-25
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic nominee for FL-25?: Jared Moskowitz
KXFLPRIMARY-25D26-JMOS
Cluster 3
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?: Debbie Wasserman Schultz
KXFLPRIMARY-20D26-DSCH
Cluster 4
Will Keith Gross be the Republican nominee for FL-02
Will Keith Gross be the Republican nominee for FL-02?: Keith Gross
KXFLPRIMARY-02R26-KGRO
Cluster 5
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?: Elijah Manley
KXFLPRIMARY-20D26-EMAN
Cluster 6
Will Austin Rogers be the Republican nominee for FL-02
Will Austin Rogers be the Republican nominee for FL-02?: Austin Rogers
KXFLPRIMARY-02R26-AROG
Cluster 7
Will David Burck be the Republican nominee for FL-22
Will David Burck be the Republican nominee for FL-22?: David Burck
KXFLPRIMARY-22R26-DBUR
Cluster 8
Will Evan Power be the Republican nominee for FL-02
Will Evan Power be the Republican nominee for FL-02?: Evan Power
KXFLPRIMARY-02R26-EPOW
Cluster 9
Will Cory Mills be the Republican nominee for FL-07
Will Cory Mills be the Republican nominee for FL-07?: Cory Mills
KXFLPRIMARY-07R26-CMIL
Cluster 10
Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09
Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?: Ben Butler
KXFLPRIMARY-09R26-BBUT
Cluster 11
Will Ryan Elijah be the Republican nominee for FL-07
Will Ryan Elijah be the Republican nominee for FL-07?: Ryan Elijah
KXFLPRIMARY-07R26-RELI
Cluster 12
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?: Randy Fine
KXFLPRIMARY-06R26-RFIN
Cluster 13
Will Michael Carbonara be the Republican nominee for FL-22
Will Michael Carbonara be the Republican nominee for FL-22?: Michael Carbonara
KXFLPRIMARY-22R26-MCAR
Cluster 14
Will Joe Strada be the Republican nominee for FL-11
Will Joe Strada be the Republican nominee for FL-11?: Joe Strada
KXFLPRIMARY-11R26-JSTR
Cluster 15
Will LaShonda Holloway be the Democratic nominee for FL-04
Will LaShonda Holloway be the Democratic nominee for FL-04?: LaShonda Holloway
KXFLPRIMARY-04D26-LHOL
Cluster 16
Will Bernard Taylor be the Democratic nominee for FL-21
Will Bernard Taylor be the Democratic nominee for FL-21?: Bernard Taylor
KXFLPRIMARY-21D26-BTAY
Analysis
This probability indicates traders estimate a 3% chance that Aaron Baker will win the Republican primary nomination for Florida's 6th congressional district. The low level reflects limited market conviction about Baker's candidacy relative to other potential nominees in the race. Movement in this probability would likely depend on several factors: Baker's visibility and campaign infrastructure compared to other primary contenders, any polling data showing his support level among GOP primary voters, endorsements from established Republican figures or organizations, and fundraising performance. The Republican primary election itself would be the ultimate catalyst resolving this uncertainty, though significant momentum shifts could occur during the pre-primary period if Baker gains media attention or demonstrates unexpected grassroots support. Currently, the minimal trading volume suggests limited market interest in this specific outcome, which typically indicates either low perceived likelihood or insufficient information for traders to confidently assess the race.
- ›Aaron Baker's name recognition and prior electoral experience in FL-06 or Florida Republican politics relative to other primary candidates
- ›Polling results from Republican primary voters in FL-06 showing Baker's support level compared to competing nominees
- ›Fundraising totals and spending capacity demonstrating whether Baker can mount a viable campaign infrastructure
- ›Endorsements or organizational support from established GOP figures, groups, or the state party apparatus
- ›The timing and structure of Florida's Republican primary process and filing deadlines for the 2026 cycle
What moved the line
- Aug 9Keith Gross↓16pp41→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Keith Gross↓14pp55→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9Elijah Manley↓12pp20→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4David Burck↑12pp12→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Cory Mills↑12pp21→33¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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