Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
543 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Daniel Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06
Will Daniel Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?: Daniel Bilzerian
KXFLPRIMARY-06R26-DBIL
Cluster 2
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic nominee for FL-23
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic nominee for FL-23?: Jared Moskowitz
KXFLPRIMARY-23D26-JMOS
Cluster 3
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?: Randy Fine
KXFLPRIMARY-06R26-RFIN
Cluster 4
Will Oliver Larkin be the Democratic nominee for FL-23
Will Oliver Larkin be the Democratic nominee for FL-23?: Oliver Larkin
KXFLPRIMARY-23D26-OLAR
What moved the line
- May 6Jared Moskowitz↓19pp29→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Jared Moskowitz↑15pp14→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Jared Moskowitz↑15pp9→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Oliver Larkin↓13pp32→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Oliver Larkin↓9pp41→32¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.