Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability indicates traders estimate a 3% chance that Aaron Baker will win the Republican primary nomination for Florida's 6th congressional district. The low level reflects limited market conviction about Baker's candidacy relative to other potential nominees in the race. Movement in this probability would likely depend on several factors: Baker's visibility and campaign infrastructure compared to other primary contenders, any polling data showing his support level among GOP primary voters, endorsements from established Republican figures or organizations, and fundraising performance. The Republican primary election itself would be the ultimate catalyst resolving this uncertainty, though significant momentum shifts could occur during the pre-primary period if Baker gains media attention or demonstrates unexpected grassroots support. Currently, the minimal trading volume suggests limited market interest in this specific outcome, which typically indicates either low perceived likelihood or insufficient information for traders to confidently assess the race.

• ›Aaron Baker's name recognition and prior electoral experience in FL-06 or Florida Republican politics relative to other primary candidates
• ›Polling results from Republican primary voters in FL-06 showing Baker's support level compared to competing nominees
• ›Fundraising totals and spending capacity demonstrating whether Baker can mount a viable campaign infrastructure
• ›Endorsements or organizational support from established GOP figures, groups, or the state party apparatus
• ›The timing and structure of Florida's Republican primary process and filing deadlines for the 2026 cycle

What moved the line

• Jun 18Carey Baker↓36pp84→48¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Carey Baker↓31pp62→31¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Michael Carbonara↓26pp66→40¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Carey Baker↑22pp31→53¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Oliver Gilbert↑17pp43→60¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds