Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. Silver would need to rally approximately 55% from current levels (~$110) to hit $170 by end-June 2026, yet the market prices this outcome at just 3% probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 15,965% on the Yes side, suggesting severe underpricing or extreme tail-risk skepticism.
Analysis
Silver would need to rally approximately 55% from current levels (~$110) to hit $170 by end-June 2026, yet the market prices this outcome at just 3% probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 15,965% on the Yes side, suggesting severe underpricing or extreme tail-risk skepticism. The 74-day timeframe and neutral regime score (0.341) indicate no unusual momentum, while the tight 1¢ spread and modest $2.3M daily volume reflect low liquidity for such an extreme move, creating potential arbitrage opportunities if silver volatility spikes materially.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
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Trade
sf trade 0xa7917e7d6769c541fb3002db0e61c898d4a1fee139f50fbcfdf71fd7b78fcb22 yes 100