Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?

Silver would need to plunge roughly 27% from current levels to hit $45 by end-June 2026, yet the market prices this outcome at just 6% probability with an extreme 7,732% annualized yield on the YES side—suggesting either deep skepticism about such a sharp move or potential mispricing given silver's historical volatility. The sharp 45% price decline over seven days (11¢ to 6¢) indicates recent selling pressure, though the $21.6K open interest and modest $1.95K daily volume raise liquidity concerns for a market with 74 days to expiry. The neutral regime score and elevated cliff risk index (16) suggest this contract could experience sudden repricing if silver approaches the $45 level or if macro conditions shift significantly.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.

Indicators

Regime

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