SimpleFunctions

↓ $75 · Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June

↓ $75 is priced at 93¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 87¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?.

Price history

93¢ current

+43¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 12, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.

Outcome

↓ $75

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

↓ $75 93¢

Range

1¢-93¢

Family volume

$3.9M

Identifier

0xfdd0fd74...cfeb

May 28, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 4m ago

Implied probability

93¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 4m ago

Bid

87¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

12¢

24h volume

$304

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$3.9M

Orderbook snapshot

87 / 99¢

Polymarket
12¢ spread
BidSize
87¢20
87¢13
78¢9
77¢16
57¢100
44¢300
44¢339
40¢35
AskSize
99¢200
100¢2.2K
100¢40

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0xfdd0fd74…cfeb

SF Signal
SF Index
12948.67
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$3.9M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↓ $75 93¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↓ $75

polymarket · 0xfdd0fd74fe80275a93d42155008e940616f5af9138d491e17f064878a3becfeb

93¢
$103$3040.1

↑ $85

polymarket · 0xebb1ea662b616493063f6e4a7beaff2cf35f4b465fbb023a4bb15ded9c012dff

31¢
$5K$2K

↓ $65

polymarket · 0xa43ad4037543d8376fe6bc828997820cc197ceb86d8c8f51b33b95c6676078cf

24¢
$209K$2K

↓ $60

polymarket · 0x898e9ff5045fcd05c26ea1e956d926c191d5aecae1bc184283c94e665f0f7be5

9¢
$192K$327

↑ $100

polymarket · 0x5d58553c3583b535dfaa93c55de4eaddc37c60487d058430668311733b08ae1c

6¢
$9K$0

↓ $55

polymarket · 0xf29ba3bae0662b6f977f4918ad07ce6ea1c9d49bbc63a9145a2973cc829d245e

4¢
$152K$745

↑ $120

polymarket · 0x1b252df7e5281d8fb86888619f4ee1f5045c9f2aecb857d361819ca6522e4665

2¢
$1.0M$4K

↓ $45

polymarket · 0xe0c4e1990640ac0d2aac60f7711036191897bdeae1a1c90e5f922d0f83a34f94

2¢
$144K$0

↑ $200

polymarket · 0x35241fd758ba0da8bc3d7df2706aaf87d8420c5004ae3c4ceaa07b432f955850

1¢
$525K$7K

↑ $150

polymarket · 0xbb6db11fa76323814a73cd76cdaa459f502078166bf5810e6de1b013af7334f8

1¢
$411K$8K

↑ $250

polymarket · 0x2e034ceb0544227ee4c8a11c650cf7c1bb977e63b73e03992a23e4778686de22

1¢
$290K$235

↑ $210

polymarket · 0x077b60b7261e4a474def4863f80c432368debf93208bf3647b4e21b784e2a4aa

1¢
$262K$3K

↑ $130

polymarket · 0x27651d9f3426ef2a4f907aa78f2ed69cdb22f2570d5c05d85f6f998b5b5a4524

1¢
$232K$0

↑ $170

polymarket · 0xa7917e7d6769c541fb3002db0e61c898d4a1fee139f50fbcfdf71fd7b78fcb22

1¢
$199K$2K

↓ $35

polymarket · 0x36d8503ac63c0e55c3926fc9a903aee46ad2e1b28532af32f239eeda4aa6dbaa

1¢
$147K$0

↑ $230

polymarket · 0x42906a6d7941e5a8a92cdb9d413a84c198e5fcb110bda21341f1dadaefc78908

1¢
$116K$83

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

84.2%

IY (No)

14866.4%

Adj IY

12949%

CRI

13

RV

607%

VR

5.73

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

84.2%
14866.4%
Adj IY
12949%
13
RV
607%
VR
5.73
IAR
1.4/h
Overround
2.3%
LAS
0.13

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.