Will St. Louis win at least 65 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will St. Louis win at least 65 games this season?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $346 open interest, making the 72¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $346 open interest, making the 72¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The massive 22¢ spread and wildly divergent implied yields (69.2% for Yes vs. 457.5% for No) suggest significant pricing inefficiency, with the No side offering exceptional risk-adjusted returns of 458% despite the low probability. The 4-cent price decline over seven days combined with 97% realized volatility indicates this thin market is highly susceptible to noise, and with 205 days until expiry, fundamental information about St. Louis's roster construction and season performance remains largely unpriced.
Resolution rules
If St. Louis has 65+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-STL-26-T65 yes 100