Will Steve Hilton finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Steve Hilton finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $300 open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $300 open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields (896.8% Yes vs 8.8% No) signal thin order books where even small trades could move the price significantly, evidenced by the recent 22% decline from 11¢ to 9¢ over seven days. With 412 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 10, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where the pricing may not reflect genuine probability assessment of Hilton's third-place finish odds.
Resolution rules
If Steve Hilton finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCAGOV3RD-26JUN02-3-SHIL yes 100