7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch above 60 before June 15, 2026
Before Jun 15, 2026 is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 9 inside Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before.
Price history
20¢ current
+14¢Contract brief
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jun 15, 2026
Rank
#8 of 9
Leader
Before Jul 1, 2027 89¢
Range
4¢-89¢
Family volume
$850K
Identifier
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260615
May 24, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$134K
Family rank
#8 of 9
9 outcomes · Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
Family volume
$850K
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
Identifier
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260615
Event family
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$850K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Before Jul 1, 2027 89¢
Current share
16%
Before Jul 1, 2027
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270701
Before Apr 1, 2027
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270401
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701
Before Jun 15, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260615
Before Jun 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.