Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.... This contract trades at 67¢ on Kalshi, closing July 7, 2026. The 67¢ price reflects a 67% probability that transit calls will exceed 60 before July 1, reflecting baseline expectations for Hormuz traffic.
Analysis
The 67¢ price reflects a 67% probability that transit calls will exceed 60 before July 1, reflecting baseline expectations for Hormuz traffic. The extreme 908% implied yield on the No side suggests significant asymmetric risk pricing, likely driven by geopolitical tail risks that could disrupt shipping flows, though the flat 7-day price action and neutral regime indicate current stability. With 82 days to resolution and modest $23k daily volume, liquidity is thin relative to the $107k open interest, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (3)
Trade
sf trade KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701 yes 100